Migration trends 2021
Migration trends 2021
15 June 2021
The Home Office has published its latest “Migration Journey” report, which examines the changes in non-EEA migrants’ visa and leave to remain status in 2021. It gives some interesting insights into migration trends, many of which are the direct result of changes to the Immigration Rules.
Settlement trends
For most routes that lead to settlement, there is a requirement to spend a continuous five-year period in the UK. Looking at the figures for people granted initial leave in 2016, only 11% had been granted settlement after five years. The largest proportion of those granted settlement arrived in the UK on a Family visa (29%) or a Work visa (28%). The number of people granted settlement after five years peaked in 2007 at 20% but has since fallen to, and settled at, 9-11%.
A fifth of people granted initial leave in 2016 still held valid leave in 2021, with those aged 18-29 least likely to hold valid leave or settlement after five years (24%). This is partly explained by the fact that this cohort represented 83% and 76% of Sponsored study and Temporary Worker visas issued during this period.
Sponsored study trends
The Student visa is not a route to settlement; however, individuals can switch into another category after their studies which does lead to settlement (eg Skilled Worker). Only 1% of Student visa holders granted permission in 2016 had been granted settlement by the end of 2021. In addition, only 17% of those granted a Student visa in 2016 still held leave in 2021. These figures indicate that many students come to the UK to study but do not subsequently stay in the UK in the medium term.
Indeed, there has been a general decline in the proportion of people who come to the UK on Student visa and subsequently switch to a Work visa – falling from 13% for the 2004 cohort to 5% for the 2016 cohort. This decline coincides with the tightening of the Immigration Rules for the Student route in 2007. It will be interesting to see whether the introduction of the Graduate route (launched on 1 June 2021) will have any impact of this trend in the coming years. The introduction of the Graduate route, and subsequent launch of the High Potential Individual, show that the government is keen to attract and retain graduates (though the High Potential Individual route has been criticised for its narrow definition of top university; it does not include a single institution from Africa, Latin America, or Southern Asia).
Work trends
The proportion of people granted a Work visa in 2016 who still held valid leave in 2021 (27%) or who had been granted settlement (10%) is much higher than the respective figures for Student visa holders. Those on High Value visas (73%) were most likely to still hold valid leave or to have settled after five years. This is perhaps explained by the fact that certain immigration categories (eg Tier 1 (Investor) and Global Talent) offer fast-track routes to settlement. Just over a third (34%) of those who had been issued a Skilled Worker visa still held valid leave or had settled after five years. This is interesting, particularly, as two of the key attractions of the Skilled Worker route are that it is possible to extend permission to stay on the route and that time spent on the route counts towards settlement.
Of all those granted settlement in 2021 who initially were granted leave to enter on a Work visa, the top three nationalities were India (29%), Pakistan (8%) and the USA (7%).
Only 3% of people switched to a different visa category in the five years to the end of 2021.
Family trends
The proportion of people who still held valid leave or settlement at the end of 2021, having been granted a Family visa in 2016, was 83%, slightly lower than the 2015 cohort (89%). Children who arrived on a Family visa in 2016 were more likely (89%) to hold valid leave or settlement five years later.
There has been a general decline in the proportion of people granted a Family visa who are settled after five years – falling from 82% for the 2010 cohort to 42% for the 2016 cohort. This is partly explained by changes to the Immigration Rules, such as the introduction of the 10-year family route.
Asylum trends
Unsurprisingly, people who have been granted asylum are far more likely to hold valid leave or to have settled after five years. 13,000 people were granted Asylum in the UK in 2016, with almost all of them (99%) still holding valid leave or having settled by the end of 2021. The majority have been granted settlement (64%). This proportion is even higher for those who were granted asylum 10 years ago (96%).
The vast majority of people granted asylum in 2016 were male (74%) and the most common age group was 18-29 (43%).
Exceptional assurance
In response to COVID-19, the Home Office introduced exceptional assurance. This short-term protection allows individuals who intend to leave the UK but are unable to due to travel restrictions to remain in the UK without the risk of adverse action or consequences should their leave expire. Between September 2020 and the end of 2021, there were 104,083 grants of exceptional assurance. The Home Office also introduced exceptional extensions for frontline health and care workers.
The majority of grants of exceptional assurance or extensions were to individuals on a visit visa (66%), followed by those on Student visas (17%) and Work visas (8%).
Get in touch
To learn more about forthcoming changes to UK immigration law, see our website, contact your assigned LDI lawyer or email enquiries@lauradevine.com.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Robert Greene
Paralegal
First flight to Rwanda cancelled after last-minute appeals
First flight to Rwanda cancelled after last-minute appeals
15 June 2022
The first scheduled flight for the removal of asylum seekers to Rwanda was cancelled yesterday evening after an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights (‘ECHR’) triggered a series of further appeals in the ECHR and courts of London.
What is the Rwanda agreement?
The UK and Rwanda signed the Memorandum of Understanding for the provision of an “asylum partnership arrangement” on 14 April 2022. The aim of the Migration and Economic Development Partnership with Rwanda (MEDP) is to enable the UK government to send asylum seekers to Rwanda to process their asylum applications. Individuals who are relocated to Rwanda would not normally be allowed to return to the UK.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the agreement as an “innovative approach driven by our shared humanitarian impulse and made possible by Brexit freedoms”. Home Secretary Priti Patel said the agreement is designed to put a stop to “people smugglers” and “serious organised criminals who profit from human misery” and would act as a deterrent to asylum seekers using dangerous methods to enter the UK, such as crossing the Channel in small boats.
There has been widespread condemnation of the policy, from the archbishops of Canterbury and York (alongside 23 bishops), through to non-profit organisations and opposition MPs. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper described the plan as “unworkable, shameful and desperate” while Prince Charles has privately criticised the policy as “appalling”. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’) said it does not consider MEDP to comply with the UK’s obligations under international law.
Legal challenges to the Rwanda policy
The policy has been the subject to intense litigation. On Friday 10 June, the High Court refused to grant an interim injunction to halt the first scheduled flight to Rwanda. Justice Jonathan Swift held that there was “material public interest” in following through with the policy as the focus is to deter people smugglers who benefit from the trafficking of refugees.
On Monday 13 June, the case was appealed to the Court of Appeal where three judges also refused to grant an interim injunction. Lord Justice Rabinder Singh said that Justice Jonathan Swift had not “err[ed] in his approach” and “reached conclusions he was entitled to reach”.
However, a series of last-minute appeals to the European Court of Human Rights (‘ECHR’) and Court of Appeal successfully halted the flight from taking off on Tuesday 14 June.
Speaking of the ECHR’s intervention, James Wilson, deputy director of Detention Action said: “The ECHR rarely intervenes in the legal matters of member countries. That it has done so now shows how potentially dangerous the government’s Rwanda removals policy is.”
In response, Priti Patel said: “We will not be deterred from doing the right thing and delivering our plans to control our nation’s borders.” She confirmed that the Home Office legal team is reviewing the courts’ decisions and preparing for the next flight to Rwanda.
In July, a judicial review case examining the policy will be heard in the High Court.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Amira Hassan
Legal Intern
Francesca Sciberras and Yael Hagheray write for ILPA Monthly
Francesca Sciberras and Yael Hagheray write about the High Potential Individual route for ILPA Monthly
24 May 2022
Senior Solicitor Francesca Sciberras and Paralegal Yael Hagheray have written an article for ILPA Monthly titled “Attracting the best graduates to the UK: will the new High Potential route actually achieve this?”. In the article, they examine the characteristics of the route and compare it to the recently-launched Graduate route. You can read the article here (ILPA members only).
Get in touch
To learn more about forthcoming changes to UK immigration law, see our website, contact your assigned LDI lawyer or email enquiries@lauradevine.com.
Francesca Sciberras
Senior Solicitor
Yael Hagheray
Paralegal
Laura Devine writes for The Law Society Gazette
Laura Devine writes about the UK's response to the Ukraine humanitarian crisis for The Law Society Gazette
27 January 2022
Managing Partner Laura Devine has written an article for The Law Society Gazette, examining the UK government’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing humanitarian crisis. The article, titled ‘UK’s policy on Ukraine marks a turning point’, compares the generous and easy-to-navigate scheme introduced by the EU with the complex and bureaucratic regime launched by the Home Office. You can read the article here.
Laura Devine
Managing Partner
UK and Rwanda sign agreement to remove asylum seekers
UK and Rwanda sign agreement to remove asylum seekers
13 May 2022
On 14 April 2022, the UK and Rwanda signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the provision of an “asylum partnership arrangement”. In short, the agreement allows the UK government to send asylum seekers to Rwanda to have their applications processed. The agreement is part of the government’s New Plan for Immigration and was signed two weeks before the Nationality and Borders Bill was given Royal Assent.
What is the asylum partnership arrangement?
Home Secretary Priti Patel described the agreement as the “biggest overhaul of our immigration system in decades.” Indeed, the policy marks the first arrangement between the UK and another country for the removal of asylum seekers.
The so-called “one way ticket” allows the UK government to offshore asylum applicants to Rwanda, where their applications are processed in line with Rwandan national law and the Refugee Convention. The UK’s legal responsibility for such individuals ends once they are relocated to Rwanda; individuals who are relocated are not allowed to return to the UK.
Is the arrangement legal?
Under paragraph 345C of the Immigration Rules, an applicant whose asylum application is treated as inadmissible may be removed to a “safe third country”. An application may be treated as inadmissible for a number of reasons, including where an applicant passes through a safe third country and fails to make an application there. In theory, this provision would capture individuals crossing the Channel on small boats. However, until now, the UK has not had arrangements in place with other countries to remove such individuals. It could only remove individuals in more limited circumstances, for example, where an individual has refugee status in a safe third country.
This may explain why there is a large discrepancy between the number of asylum applicants who are issued notices of intent to inform them that their cases are being reviewed on inadmissibility grounds (8,593*) and the number of people who are removed to a third country (11*). Jonathan Featonby, Policy and Advocacy Manager at the British Red Cross, expects the number of removals to increase as a result of this policy.
The Nationality and Borders Act (‘the Act’) inserts the inadmissibility provisions (outlined above) into primary legislation. A provision to amend section 77 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 to allow the removal of asylum seekers to a “safe third country” whilst their applications were pending was removed from the Bill after suffering a defeat in the House of Lords. The insertion of this clause would have meant that a much wider group of individuals would have fallen within the remit of the removal rules.
Why has the UK implemented the policy?
Speaking about the arrangement, Priti Patel said the agreement would “put an end to [the] deadly trade in people smuggling”. In particular, she highlighted the more than 28,000 migrants who crossed the English Channel last year in small boats. Under the new arrangement, anyone who crosses the Channel by small boat could be relocated to Rwanda. Patel claims the new policy will deter illegal entry and be a “major blow to evil people smugglers”.
However, there has been scepticism over the validity of this point. In a letter to the Home Secretary, Matthew Rycroft CBE, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, said that whilst he was satisfied that is was “regular, proper and feasible for this policy to proceed”, he did not believe that there was “sufficient evidence” to demonstrate that the policy would have a deterrent effect. If the example of Australia is anything to go by, then there is doubt over whether offshoring processing acts as a deterrent.
In his letter, Matthew Rycroft also highlighted the “value for money” of the proposal, which is largely dependant upon the policy acting as an effective deterrent. The UK government has committed £120 million to the “world first partnership”; however, it is believed that this is only an initial investment as the UK will be paying for operational costs too.
What is next?
Both the Rwanda agreement and Nationality and Borders Act have been the subject of fierce criticism. Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, described the Rwanda agreement as “unworkable” and “extortionate”.
It is expected that the policy will face legal challenges. Indeed, Leigh Day has already submitted a pre-action letter to the Home Office on behalf of the charity Freedom from Torture, citing “serious concerns about the lawfulness of the policy”.
In response, Prime Minister Boris Johnson took aim at “liberal-left lawyers will try to make this [deal] difficult”.
“We always knew this was going to happen,” he added. “I’m not going to pretend to you that is going to be without legal challenges… but we will get it done.”
*Figures are from 2021.
Get in touch
To learn more about forthcoming changes to UK immigration law, see our website, contact your assigned LDI lawyer or email enquiries@lauradevine.com.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Robert Greene
Paralegal
High Potential Individual to launch on 30 May 2022
High Potential Individual to launch on 30 May 2022
12 May 2022
The Home Office is launching a new immigration route, the High Potential Individual (‘HPI’), for graduates from top international universities on 30 May 2022. The route shares some similarities with the Graduate route, but also has a number of advantages over that route.
Who is eligible?
Anyone who has obtained a degree equivalent to a UK bachelor’s degree (or higher) in an institution named on the Global Universities List within the past five years can apply.
The Global Universities List features the top 50 non-UK universities appearing on at least two of the following ranking systems: Times Higher Education World University Rankings, Quacquarelli Symonds World University Rankings and The Academic Ranking of World Universities. The list will be updated annually and the list of eligible institutions for the past six years can be viewed here.
How long can individuals stay?
Individuals who obtain a PhD will be granted three years’ permission whilst all other individuals will be granted two years’ permission. It is not possible to extend permission on the route, but it is possible to switch into another route (eg Skilled Worker).
Is it a route to settlement?
No, time spent under this route does not lead to settlement in the UK, but time spent under the category can count towards 10 years lawful residence in the UK for indefinite leave to remain (‘IRL’) purposes.
Can individuals work?
Yes, individuals are allowed to work and study (subject to limitations). As this is an unsponsored route, there is no salary threshold or sponsor licence fee, making it an attractive option for employers.
What are the advantages of the route compared to the Graduate route?
Unlike the Graduate route, individuals are not required to be in the UK at the date of application and do not need to hold permission as a Student; applicants can apply up to five years after the date they obtained their degree.
Another advantage of the HPI category compared to the Graduate route is the more generous provisions for dependants. Unlike the Graduate route, dependants are not required to have held permission as dependants whilst the applicant was on the Student route to qualify as dependants on the HPI route.
What are the disadvantages of the route compared to the Graduate route?
Applicants under the HPI route must demonstrate English language ability to at least level B1 (intermediate); Graduate applicants automatically satisfy this requirement by virtue of the fact that they have been awarded a UK degree.
Get in touch
To learn more about forthcoming changes to UK immigration law, see our website, contact your assigned LDI lawyer or email enquiries@lauradevine.com.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Miglena Ilieva
Paralegal
Nationality and Borders Bill becomes law
Nationality and Borders Bill becomes law
30 April 2022
On 28 April 2022, the controversial Nationality and Borders Bill (‘the Bill’) received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament. Speaking on the passing on the legislation, Home Secretary Priti Patel said, “This is a huge milestone in our commitment to our promise to the British – a fair but firm immigration system.” However, critics of the Bill have been less enthusiastic, labelling it “anti-refugee”.
What is the Nationality and Borders Act?
The Nationality and Borders Act 2022 (‘the Act’) is part of the government’s New Plan for Immigration, a strategy which aims, among other things, to deter illegal entry into the UK and remove people without permission to stay. The Act is a cornerstone of this plan and seeks to “overhaul” the UK’s asylum system.
The Act introduces a raft of changes, including:
- Penalties: Harsher penalties for people smugglers (with a maximum sentence of life imprisonment) as well as individuals who illegally enter the UK or overstay (up to four years’ imprisonment). Additional penalties have also been introduced for late submission of evidence, which undermine the claimant’s credibility or the weight attached to their evidence.
- Two-tier system: Individuals who arrive in the UK by irregular means may receive less favourable treatment and support. This measure will particularly affect individuals arriving to the UK on small boats via the Channel.
- Appeal: Removing stages of appeal or fast-tracking in certain circumstances, which the Home Office labels the “merry-go-round of legal challenges”.
- Tribunal powers: The Immigration Tribunal has been granted additional powers, including the power to fine lawyers for improper, unreasonable or negligent conduct.
- ETA scheme: Introducing a US-style Electronic Travel Authorisation (‘ETA’) scheme which requires all individuals (except British and Irish citizens) to seek permission to travel to the UK in advance. The scheme will be operational by the end of 2024.
- Standard of proof: Increasing the standard of proof from “reasonable likelihood” to “the balance of probabilities” (used in civil claims) when assessing whether someone has faced persecution.
What has been the response to the Act?
The Act has been the subject of fierce debate, both in the Houses of Parliament as well as in the media. The Bill suffered numerous defeats in the House of Lords, with the result that some of the more severe provisions in the original text were watered down or removed altogether.
Opposition parties and charities launched scathing attacks on the Bill, with the UNCHR saying the Act would “penalise most refugees seeking asylum in the [UK]” whilst the Refugee Council labelled the Act “inhumane”.
The Law Society also published a critical response to the Act, saying it had “significant concerns” over the potential impact of the Act’s measures. In particular, it highlighted concerns that penalising refugees who arrive in the UK via irregular would be incompatible with the Refugee Convention 1951.
What is next?
Priti Patel has said the government will “work tirelessly” to deliver the reforms under the Act. This includes establishing agreements with “safe third countries” to send asylum applicants whose claims have been deemed inadmissible. The UK recently signed one such agreement with Rwanda.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Robert Greene
Paralegal
Who's Who Legal 2022
Laura Devine Immigration excels in Who's Who Legal 2022 rankings
20 April 2022
Seven members of the LDI team are ranked for Corporate Immigration in the Who’s Who Legal 2022 rankings. Managing Partner Laura Devine and Senior Partner and Head of UK Practice Sophie Barrett-Brown have been crowned Global Elite Thought Leaders; Managing Partner of the New York office Jennifer Stevens has been ranked a Thought Leader; Partner and Head of Risk and Compliance Natasha Chell and Partner and Head of the US Practice Christi Hufford Jackson have been named Global Leaders; whilst Senior Solicitors Francesca Sciberras and Nicolette Bostock have been ranked Future Leaders.
Founding partner, Laura Devine‘s practice remains at the cutting edge and her track record is consistently excellent. One peer states, “Laura is leader of corporate immigration in the UK – and for a very good reason!” Sophie Barrett-Brown is described as “a leader in the world of immigration” with “a brilliant legal mind”. Natasha Chell earns widespread praise for her “ability to think of creative solutions” and her determination “to explore all avenues to get success for her client”. Christi Jackson is praised as “a significant player in immigration law” and is credited for her “responsive, thorough and informative” approach. Nicolette Bostock is described as “an up-and-coming leader of immigration law”; clients say “her speed, responsiveness and knowledge are unmatched elsewhere”. Francesca Sciberras is described by one peer as simply “brilliant” and another as “an up-and-coming star of immigration law”.
LDI’s New York office is home to Jennifer Stevens who is distinguished as being “an experienced corporate immigration lawyer” with an “in-depth knowledge and is committed to improving the quality and consistency of UK immigration law.”
Read the full review in Who’s Who Legal.
Miglena Ilieva and Robert Greene write for Lexis PSL
Miglena Ilieva and Robert Greene write for Lexis PSL
18 March 2022
Senior Solicitor Miglena Ilieva and Paralegal Robert Greene have taken a deep dive into the new Global Business Mobility route for Lexis PSL. The route, which was detailed in the latest Statement of Changes, is set to come into effect from 11 April 2022. It has five-subcategories, allowing overseas organisations to send employees to the UK on a temporary assignment or as part of an expansion project. The route replaces and expands on a number of existing routes, with some important differences. In their article, Miglena and Robert explore the changes we knew about and those we do not, and outline some of the areas that remain unclear. You can read the article here.
Miglena Ilieva
Senior Solicitor and PSL Team Manager
Robert Greene
Paralegal
Laura Devine writes for Citywealth
Laura Devine writes for Citywealth UK Immigration Focus 2022
17 March 2022
Managing Partner Laura Devine has written for City Wealth’s UK Immigration Focus 2022. The article, which features interviews with some of Citywealth’s Leading List of immigration law experts, examines the UK’s new points-based immigration system, the impact of Brexit and COVID-19, and the recent closure of the Tier 1 (Investor) route. You can read the article here.