Migration trends 2021
15 June 2021
The Home Office has published its latest “Migration Journey” report, which examines the changes in non-EEA migrants’ visa and leave to remain status in 2021. It gives some interesting insights into migration trends, many of which are the direct result of changes to the Immigration Rules.
Settlement trends
For most routes that lead to settlement, there is a requirement to spend a continuous five-year period in the UK. Looking at the figures for people granted initial leave in 2016, only 11% had been granted settlement after five years. The largest proportion of those granted settlement arrived in the UK on a Family visa (29%) or a Work visa (28%). The number of people granted settlement after five years peaked in 2007 at 20% but has since fallen to, and settled at, 9-11%.
A fifth of people granted initial leave in 2016 still held valid leave in 2021, with those aged 18-29 least likely to hold valid leave or settlement after five years (24%). This is partly explained by the fact that this cohort represented 83% and 76% of Sponsored study and Temporary Worker visas issued during this period.
Sponsored study trends
The Student visa is not a route to settlement; however, individuals can switch into another category after their studies which does lead to settlement (eg Skilled Worker). Only 1% of Student visa holders granted permission in 2016 had been granted settlement by the end of 2021. In addition, only 17% of those granted a Student visa in 2016 still held leave in 2021. These figures indicate that many students come to the UK to study but do not subsequently stay in the UK in the medium term.
Indeed, there has been a general decline in the proportion of people who come to the UK on Student visa and subsequently switch to a Work visa – falling from 13% for the 2004 cohort to 5% for the 2016 cohort. This decline coincides with the tightening of the Immigration Rules for the Student route in 2007. It will be interesting to see whether the introduction of the Graduate route (launched on 1 June 2021) will have any impact of this trend in the coming years. The introduction of the Graduate route, and subsequent launch of the High Potential Individual, show that the government is keen to attract and retain graduates (though the High Potential Individual route has been criticised for its narrow definition of top university; it does not include a single institution from Africa, Latin America, or Southern Asia).
Work trends
The proportion of people granted a Work visa in 2016 who still held valid leave in 2021 (27%) or who had been granted settlement (10%) is much higher than the respective figures for Student visa holders. Those on High Value visas (73%) were most likely to still hold valid leave or to have settled after five years. This is perhaps explained by the fact that certain immigration categories (eg Tier 1 (Investor) and Global Talent) offer fast-track routes to settlement. Just over a third (34%) of those who had been issued a Skilled Worker visa still held valid leave or had settled after five years. This is interesting, particularly, as two of the key attractions of the Skilled Worker route are that it is possible to extend permission to stay on the route and that time spent on the route counts towards settlement.
Of all those granted settlement in 2021 who initially were granted leave to enter on a Work visa, the top three nationalities were India (29%), Pakistan (8%) and the USA (7%).
Only 3% of people switched to a different visa category in the five years to the end of 2021.
Family trends
The proportion of people who still held valid leave or settlement at the end of 2021, having been granted a Family visa in 2016, was 83%, slightly lower than the 2015 cohort (89%). Children who arrived on a Family visa in 2016 were more likely (89%) to hold valid leave or settlement five years later.
There has been a general decline in the proportion of people granted a Family visa who are settled after five years – falling from 82% for the 2010 cohort to 42% for the 2016 cohort. This is partly explained by changes to the Immigration Rules, such as the introduction of the 10-year family route.
Asylum trends
Unsurprisingly, people who have been granted asylum are far more likely to hold valid leave or to have settled after five years. 13,000 people were granted Asylum in the UK in 2016, with almost all of them (99%) still holding valid leave or having settled by the end of 2021. The majority have been granted settlement (64%). This proportion is even higher for those who were granted asylum 10 years ago (96%).
The vast majority of people granted asylum in 2016 were male (74%) and the most common age group was 18-29 (43%).
Exceptional assurance
In response to COVID-19, the Home Office introduced exceptional assurance. This short-term protection allows individuals who intend to leave the UK but are unable to due to travel restrictions to remain in the UK without the risk of adverse action or consequences should their leave expire. Between September 2020 and the end of 2021, there were 104,083 grants of exceptional assurance. The Home Office also introduced exceptional extensions for frontline health and care workers.
The majority of grants of exceptional assurance or extensions were to individuals on a visit visa (66%), followed by those on Student visas (17%) and Work visas (8%).
Get in touch
To learn more about forthcoming changes to UK immigration law, see our website, contact your assigned LDI lawyer or email enquiries@lauradevine.com.
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