22 September 2021

The Migration Observatory has published a new report that takes a look at migrant worker trends for EU and non-EU nationals. The report shows a widespread decline in visa applications since the onset of COVID-19, particularly among EU workers.

Decline in applications from overseas workers
The number of EU migrants coming to the UK for long-term work has been in decline since 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum.

Since the onset of COVID-19, the EU migrant workforce has taken a sharp hit. Figures suggest net out-migration of 50,000 EU citizens during the first lockdown from March to June 2020.

In addition, the demand for work visas since the end of the free movement on 1 January 2021 has been low. There were just over 15,000 visa applications from EU citizens in the first half of 2021, representing 14% of visa applications. Over half of these were for Frontier Work permits. There were 2,900 applications for Skilled Worker visas during this period, representing 12% of the total number of Skilled Worker visa applications.

These figures are quite drastic compared to those in 2019, where EU migrants represented 45% of migrants coming to the UK to work for at least one year. The reasons for the decline are not entirely clear as there are several factors at play, including international travel restrictions and the possibility that EU citizens moved to the UK before the end of the free movement.COVID-19 has also had a big impact on non-EU migration, with the total number of visas granted for main applicants falling by 40%. Applications for Intra-Company Transfer visas were hit hardest, with a 68% decline between 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, Skilled Worker visa applications dropped by 22%.

Rebound in non-EU migration
Applications for some categories have rebounded in 2021. Applications for the Skilled Worker route, for example, were 37% higher in the first half of 2021 compared to 2019.

With COVID-19 still having an impact on international travel, it will take some time before the impact of the UK’s new immigration system on EU and non-EU migration becomes clearer.

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