23 July 2019

With only three months left until the new Prime Minister’s deadline for Brexit, we examine what effect, if any, Boris Johnson’s leadership will have on EU citizens’ rights.

Deal scenario
In a deal scenario it is expected that EU citizens’ rights will remain unchanged from the provisions set out in Draft Withdrawal Agreement, as agreed by Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May and the EU. This means that EU citizens and their family members should be able to continue to move to the UK until the end of the envisaged transition period, currently agreed as 31 December 2020, and to register under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) if they wish settle or remain in the UK beyond this date.

EU nationals and their family members wishing to move to the UK from 1 January 2021 are expected to be subject to a new immigration system, a detailed summary of which can be found here.

No-deal
Whilst an agreement may well still be reached, the new Prime Minister’s recent ‘do or die’ Brexit rhetoric seems to be making the prospect of no-deal increasingly possible. So what is the position for EU citizens and their family members in the event of a no-deal?

In its preparation for a no-deal scenario, the Government announced that it intends to end free movement following UK’s departure from the EU – meaning that EU nationals and their family members arriving in the UK by 31 October 2019 would still be able apply for status under the EUSS but those arriving after that date would not.

In an effort to soften the blow for employers reliant on an EU workforce, the Government announced that EU nationals and their family members, arriving in the UK in the period following Brexit and up to the previously envisaged end of the transition period (1 November 2019 – 31 December 2020), will be subject to a new immigration system, requiring EU citizens and their family members to apply for temporary leave to remain in the UK within three months of their arrival. The European Temporary Leave scheme is expected to be separate from the EUSS and to allow for permission of up to three years without the option for migrants to settle or extend their stay in the UK beyond this period (unless they satisfy criteria to switch into a different immigration category which may be applicable to them at the time).

Two parallel systems
The prospect of running two parallel systems, the EUSS and the European Temporary Leave system is very likely to cause confusion for applicants and their family members, with EU citizens and their family members being unsure of which system applies to them. Furthermore, the issues experienced by the recent rollout of the EUSS, such as longer than advertised processing times amongst many others, are only likely to be exasperated by the Home Office having to create a brand new application system for those arriving after Brexit in the event of no-deal.