General Election results – what will the Conservative win mean for UK immigration?
13 December 2019
The sizeable General Election victory for the Conservative Party signals full steam ahead for Brexit, but what will this mean for EU nationals living in the UK and how may this affect businesses recruiting international talent in future?
We examine the likely impacts of the new Government’s approach to UK immigration policy in the wake of Brexit.
‘Getting Brexit done’ – the end of free movement
The Prime Minister asserted throughout the election campaign that the UK will leave the EU on 31 January 2020 – with or without a deal. Given the Conservative majority, Parliament can be expected to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, although whether the 31 January timeline for exit can be met is less certain. It also remains to be seen whether the UK can secure a trade deal with the EU by the end of the transitional period on 31 December 2020 – and if not, whether the transitional period will be extended or whether the UK will leave without a trade deal.
Under the Withdrawal Agreement, free movement will continue during the transitional period; meaning that EU citizens arriving up until 31 December 2020 (or later if extended) will have the right to live and work in the UK and may continue to do so after free movement ends by applying for settled/pre-settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS).
If the UK leaves without a deal, free movement would end on exit and only those already present in the UK by that date would be able to apply to the EUSS. However, under Conservative plans EU nationals arriving in the UK between Brexit day and 31 December 2020, would be able to live and work in the UK for a further 3 years by applying under the “Euro Temporary Leave to Remain” scheme. Afterwards, they would be required to meet the same immigration rules as non-EEA migrants or leave the UK.
A new immigration system for 2021 – so what’s new?
Free movement of EEA nationals and their family members will end following Brexit and the conclusion of transitional period (31 December 2020 under the current Johnson deal). From January 2021, new UK immigration rules will apply equally to EEA and non-EEA nationals alike. But what will those rules be?
Hot on the heels of its election win, the Conservative Party has wasted no time in issuing a press release on its post Brexit plans for immigration. With the Conservatives pledging to overhaul the UK immigration system and introduce a new Australian-style points-based system (PBS), you’d be forgiven for thinking substantial change is afoot. However, the available details of the Conservative plan for immigration disclosed today bear a remarkable resemblance to the UK’s existing system, dressed up as substantive change.
We debunk some of the rhetoric in our quick-reference guide to what’s new…and what’s not.
| Conservatives proposed new Australian-style points-based system for the UK | Existing UK system |
|---|---|
| A route for the most exceptionally talented migrants, who will not require a job offer | Tier 1 has existed since 2008 for high value migrants, including a category specifically for Exceptional Talent. No job offer is required for any Tier 1 category. |
| A route for skilled workers with a job offer | Tier 2 is the main UK immigration category for workers and requires a job offer and employer sponsorship |
| A temporary route for lower-skilled workers, to provide relief for workforce shortages, which would not lead to indefinite leave to remain (settlement) in the UK | Tier 5 includes a number of routes for temporary workers and does not lead to settlement. |
| An NHS visa – fast track entry and reduced visa fees for qualified doctors, nurses and allied health professionals who are trained to a recognised standard with good working English. | NHS professionals qualify under Tier 2 and benefit from less restrictive requirements and priority under the cap as most NHS roles are recognised ‘shortage occupations’. Processing times can already be as fast as 24 hours. However, NHS trusts are required to pay substantial up-front costs, including the Immigration Skills Charge (£5,000 for 5 years sponsorship) and Immigration Health Surcharge (proposed to rise to £12,000 for a family of four) in addition to Home Office filing fees – exemptions to those costs would be welcomed |
| Post-study work visa – to allow graduates from UK universities to remain in the UK for 2 years to take any employment | Currently there is no specific post-study work route - because the Conservatives abolished it in 2012. Previously the Tier 1 (Post Study Worker) category allowed graduates from UK universities to remain in the UK for 2 years to take any employment |
| ‘a good grasp of English’ | English language proficiency is a requirement of most existing UK immigration categories, including the main Tier 2 sponsored worker route. |
| ‘good education and qualifications’ | This is a feature of the existing system. The main Tier 2 employer-sponsored route is currently restricted to degree-level roles (with limited exceptions). In addition, more advantageous criteria apply to certain PhD level roles. |
| ‘law-abiding citizens in their own countries’ | Mandatory refusal criteria already exist for criminal convictions (dependent upon sentence and time elapsed). A wide discretion exists to refuse applicants in all categories based on ‘character, conduct and associations’ (whether criminal or not). |
| Migrants must ‘put in before they take out’ | Migrants in most categories are prohibited from claiming public funds. Most are also required to pay the IHS up-front for however many years they will be in the UK. Migrants in work categories are also making income tax and national insurance contributions. |
Lower migration, higher fees – cost as a deterrent?
Despite an average cost of approximately £150 for the Home Office to process an immigration application, recent years have witnessed a soaring increase in Home Office filing fees and related charges. The Prime Minister’s announcement that the Immigration Health Surcharge (which until a year ago was £200 per migrant per year) will increase to £625, means that many employers would be required to pay up-front government charges of over £22,500 for a standard five-year sponsorship for a Tier 2 worker with a spouse and two children.
Such high charges are unduly prohibitive for many businesses (particularly those in certain sectors and regions), which will become more pronounced once the rules are extended to cover EEA nationals and wider skill levels, as proposed.
With a key tenet of the Conservative campaign message being that ‘immigration will go down’, concerns grow that cost will be used as the key tool to limit numbers.
An ‘Australian-style Points Based System’
The now familiar Conservative slogan of an ‘Australian-style points-based system’ may play well with party focus groups but tells the voting public nothing of the policies that underpin it.
The principal PBS route in the Australian system, the ‘Skilled Independent’ category, does not require a job offer – contrary to the apparent intentions for the UK version – and is also mired in lengthy delays. Importantly, the Australian PBS is but a small part of its wider immigration system, operating to complement and supplement other categories that alone would not secure the migrants Australia needs for its economy. The Australian system also features a separate (and larger) employer-sponsored route – far more comparable to the UK’s Tier 2 sponsored worker route.
Suggestions that an Australian-style PBS could entirely replace the current UK system would therefore seem highly improbable; more credibly it may sit alongside employer-sponsored routes – just as it does in Australia …. unless of course the vision for the UK’s own PBS is very far from the ‘Australian-style’ lauded by politicians.
The key question for the UK to determine before designing any new system is to be clear on the objectives for the system – which may well not entirely coincide with Australia’s.
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